City vs. Suburbs, Revisited  What This Fall's Market Actually Looks Like

City vs. Suburbs, Revisited
What This Fall's Market Actually Looks Like

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Earlier this year, I wrote a two part series on the city versus suburbs question, first the family side of that decision, then the financial side. Both articles came from the same place: conversations with clients trying to figure out whether to stay in Philadelphia or put down roots outside it, and realizing that decision deserved more than a quick answer.

Fall is about to start, which in this business means the second real wave of the year. Families who spent the summer thinking about a move start acting on it once school routines settle in, and I'm already fielding those calls. So I wanted to revisit that same question with a fresh look at what the market is actually doing right now, because the backdrop has shifted since the spring, and it's worth understanding before you decide which side of that decision fits you.

What's happening in the city

Philadelphia is loosening up a little, and for buyers who felt boxed out over the last couple of years, that's real news. Active and new listings across the city are up nearly 10% year over year, and the city currently sits at about 1.8 months of inventory. That's still technically a seller's market, but it's a meaningfully different feeling than the frantic pace we've grown used to. Buyers are getting a bit more room to actually think, to get an inspection done without racing the clock, and in some cases to negotiate instead of simply hoping their offer gets picked.
 
The trade off is that prices haven't followed inventory downward. The median sale price in Philadelphia is still up slightly year over year, so more homes on the market hasn't translated into a discount, just into a little more breathing room around how you get to the closing table. If you're a buyer, that's a genuine positive. If you're a seller, it means your home still needs to be priced and presented well, since more competition among listings means buyers finally have the luxury of comparing.

 

What's happening in the suburbs

The suburbs tell a different story entirely, and it's one I've been watching closely given how many of my clients end up choosing that side of the decision. Montgomery County closed 979 sales recently, up over 10% year over year, with a median price around $521,000. Bucks County closed 728 sales, up more than 16%, with a median price around $530,000. Chester, Montgomery, and Bucks counties together currently rank among the ten most competitive housing markets in the entire country, with roughly 44% of homes selling above asking price this spring. In the outer suburbs, homes are still going under contract in under a week.
 
Delaware County sits a little differently in this picture. It hasn't landed in that same national competitiveness ranking, but it's far from soft. Home values there are up close to 3% over the past year, with the average now around $370,000, a meaningfully lower entry point than Bucks or Montgomery County. That price gap is exactly why I've seen more buyers take a second look at Delco lately, especially in the towns along the Main Line and the towns that keep landing on best places to live lists. It's a market with real momentum, just at a different price point and without quite the same bidding war intensity you'll find further out.
 
Taken together, that's genuinely good news if you already own a home in any of these counties, since it means the appreciation and stability that pulled you to the suburbs in the first place is still very much intact. It's a tougher story if you're trying to buy into Bucks or Montgomery County right now, where bidding wars haven't gone away and contingencies are still getting waived. Delaware County offers a bit more room to work with, though the best towns there are drawing more attention than they used to.

Back to School, End of Summer, and a Fall Full of Promise

It has been a big week in the Gellman household. Both boys started a new school this week. Ezra is in 3rd grade and Hayden is officially a kindergartener.It is a meaningful year for our family in more ways than one. How they settle in and how we feel about the community will go a long way in deciding whether we stay in the city or make the move to the suburbs. No pressure, kids!
 
Before we close the books on summer, it deserves a proper send-off. My wife took Hayden to Mexico for a week to attend a Spanish immersion camp with one of his closest friends. They had the most incredible time together, and was the perfect finale to the summer.. Also, Hayden was asked to be in a promo commercial for CHOP! Check out the photo below and more on that later. Not to be outdone, Ezra cashed in his turn and picked a long weekend trip around a baseball game at a new stadium. For anyone who has followed along, you know this was not a hard sell for me. Wrigley Field has been on my list for years, and Chicago did not disappoint. We took an architecture boat tour, ate our way through the city, and spent a morning at the Field Museum, which was an absolute must. As for the game itself, we wore Cubs hats to blend in but were quietly rooting for the other team since a Cubs loss helps the Phillies in the standings. Final score: Cubs 2, the other guys 11. A perfect day.
 
Now that the backpacks are out and the routines are back, there is something genuinely refreshing about it. Fall is my favorite season. The weather, the holidays, the rhythm of it all. It feels good to be back in it.
 
Speaking of fall, mark your calendars: the first ever Gellman Team Trivia Night is happening on October 22nd from 6 to 9PM somewhere in South Philadelphia, and everyone is invited. Come solo, bring a team, or show up somewhere in between. There will be plenty of food, drinks for all ages, and prizes every round, plus maybe even a door prize or two. I will be there with my whole family, and I am bringing in a very special trivia host that you are going to want to see for yourself. Come for an hour, stay for the whole night. Either way, we want you there!
 
By now, your Eagles schedule magnet should have landed in your mailbox. If it has not arrived or you would like an extra one for the office, or perhaps for a good friend who just happens to be thinking about buying a home soon (you know who you are), reach out and I will get one out to you while supplies last.
 
On the business side, August has been one of the busiest months of the year. Five closings this month alone, with two more set to close next week. A few of them were hard-fought deals that required patience and persistence from everyone involved, but we got them done. Heading into fall, the pipeline is full. More properties are coming to market and demand is not letting up. The market has its challenges, but people are buying and selling every single day. If you are thinking about what your next move looks like, whatever stage you are at in the process, let's talk. There is always a way to make it work.
 
Finally, do not forget to visit boughtandsoldpa.com. You will find all of my current and upcoming listings, a full picture of what buying and selling looks like in this market right now, and the complete blog archive going back over three years. Every article I have written is there, organized by how I read the market that month. It is a great way to see how things have shifted and how my takes have held up over time. Check it out when you get a chance.